Research
Analytic notes from the Fanvatic desk. Findings, methods, caveats, and grades, published nulls included. Research and education only, never picks.
Where the Board and the Evidence Disagree
The 2026 draft market and Fanvatic's thirteen-season predictor study pull apart in three places: the relocated-star tax, the narrative premium, and the discounted incumbents the board keeps underpricing. Includes the full 2025 offensive EPA-per-play reference table, computed from nflverse using the same neutral-situation filter as the stack study. Evidence and education, not a scored prediction set.
The Stack Premium: Thirteen Seasons of QB/WR Stacking, Measured
416 QB/WR duos across 13 seasons: stacking doesn't add points, it adds swing. The stat stack rankings are built on barely works, new duos are close to unforecastable, and the 2026 Stack Board covers all 32 teams. Graded publicly in January.
The Assets, Not the Logos: Thirteen Years of NFL Win-Total Bias and the 2026 Reset
Six franchises hit 10+ of 13 seasons in the same direction against their preseason win totals; chance predicts 2.4 (p=0.030). The bias follows organizational assets, and the 2026 offseason disrupted eight of the eleven extreme franchises at once. Includes the 2026 Test Board, graded publicly in January.
Why Big Spreads Hurt Preseason Favorites in Division Games
Eleven seasons, 1,169 divisional matchups. The market does not price rivalry games tighter, divisional home teams cover slightly less, and preseason favorites in divisional first meetings cover just 40.7% at spreads of 10+.
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